Could Ukraine have avoided war in those days? Recalling the sequence of events, at a press conference on February 22, Vladimir Putin offered Ukraine several conditions for normalizing relations. However, upon closer inspection, these conditions, like the previous ultimatum addressed to the USA and NATO, were purely formal in nature. Given the peculiarity of Ukrainian legislation, they were impossible to fulfill.
For instance, Putin demanded that the Ukrainian authorities recognize the results of the referendum in Crimea and renounce joining NATO.
“The first thing that needs to be done is to recognize the will of the people living in Sevastopol and Crimea. How is this will any worse than what happened in Kosovo? It is not. The decision was made by parliament, here – by a popular referendum,” Putin stated.
The demands of the Russian president were not only impossible to fulfill but also deceptive. Firstly, the Crimean referendum was held illegally. At the time of its conduct on March 17, 2014, Ukrainian laws were in effect in Crimea, which clearly prohibited local authorities from initiating and conducting referendums on matters of territorial integrity. Secondly, the referendum was conducted under the full control of the occupying troops of a neighboring country. And most importantly, the Constitution of Ukraine prohibits any changes to legislation that violate the territorial integrity of the state.
Even if we assume that Zelensky decided to agree to Putin’s conditions, he would not have been able to implement these conditions into Ukrainian legislation. The only legal way to fulfill these conditions would have been to adopt a new Constitution of Ukraine, without Crimea as part of the country. But this procedure had to go through two sessions of parliament, even with a constitutional majority (⅔ of the deputy composition of the Verkhovna Rada). Considering the character and traditions of Ukrainian society, this could only lead to a new, now third, revolution.
Of course, Putin understood that Zelensky, even if he wished to, could not fulfill his conditions. The basic plan of the Russian president was a complete change of Ukrainian power and the return of President Yanukovych. It is quite possible that Putin already envisioned in his dreams how he would receive a parade on Khreshchatyk after a short victorious war. He was not going to wait half a year for Zelensky to change the Constitution. And will he change it at all? Putin expected that the Ukrainian government would collapse like a house of cards within a few days following the Afghan scenario.
As for Kyiv’s response to Putin’s ultimatum, the next day, on February 23, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stated that Ukraine considers it impossible to fulfill the conditions for normalizing relations according to Vladimir Putin’s scenario:
“Fulfilling the conditions stated by the President of Russia to Ukraine contradicts the choice of Ukrainian society. For an independent, sovereign Ukraine and for me, as the Prime Minister of our country, this is impossible,” Shmyhal wrote on his Telegram channel.
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