In November and December 2021, Vladimir Putin, his diplomats, and propagandists conducted an information campaign that was supposed to provide Russian citizens with a legitimate explanation for the upcoming invasion of Ukraine. Russians were meant to understand that the forthcoming war was not aggressive on Russia’s part but, on the contrary, Russia was defending itself against aggression from the West and the Nazi regime of Ukraine. A key element of Putin’s information campaign was a list of demands that he presented to the leadership of the USA and other NATO countries.
On November 18, speaking at the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of “demonstratively failing” to fulfill the Minsk agreements, and France and Germany of facilitating this. Putin also outlined the content of future demands for the first time: “The question needs to be raised about achieving serious long-term security guarantees for Russia.”
On December 1, during the ceremony of receiving diplomatic credentials from foreign ambassadors, Putin stated that obtaining “security guarantees” from the West was the top priority for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “We need legal, juridical guarantees, since our Western colleagues did not fulfill their corresponding verbal commitments.”
On December 2, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov presented the first demands to the West in Stockholm. He first declared that “Ukraine is being militarily pumped up” and “the terrible scenario of military confrontation is returning.” Lavrov then moved on to threats: “ignoring Russia’s legitimate concerns will have the most serious consequences.” Although Russia “does not want any conflicts,” “every state has the right to choose ways to ensure its legitimate interests in the sphere of security.”
On December 10, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs published a press release proposing to cancel the decision of the NATO Bucharest summit in 2008, which stated that “Ukraine and Georgia will become members of NATO.”
On December 15, Putin handed over to Karen Donfried, Assistant Secretary of State of the USA, proposals on “security guarantees” that Russia wants to receive from Washington. Two days later, on December 17, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs published on its website a draft of the future document titled “Treaty between the Russian Federation and the United States of America on Security Guarantees.”
The future document was of an ultimatum nature. Specifically, it demanded the USA to refrain from creating military bases in the countries of the former USSR and to cease any military cooperation with them. Moreover, the United States was to not only refrain from further NATO expansion to the east but also withdraw all its armed forces from the territories of countries that became NATO members after 1997. This list included not only the Baltic states but almost all of Eastern Europe, including Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary.
Of course, the text of the ultimatum deliberately contained conditions that were impossible to meet. Putin was preparing to quickly capture Kyiv, and this document was needed only to have a reason to start the war.