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The first suspicions that Andriy Yermak had unofficial communication channels with the Kremlin emerged in early January 2020, when Zelensky made a very strange trip to Oman. Facts suggest that in this Middle Eastern country, the President of Ukraine met with a high-ranking representative of Putin, most likely the Secretary of the Russian Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev.

The chronology of this journey is quite convoluted, but social media and modern technologies significantly simplified the work of journalists. According to the official version, Zelensky celebrated the New Year with his family at the state residence Sinegora in the Carpathians. However, on January 1, he was spotted several tens of kilometers away, at the Bukovel ski resort. Kolomoisky was also in Bukovel at the time, but that’s beside the point.

Zelensky spent several days skiing and taking photos with tourists. It seemed that after an extended winter holiday, he would return to Kyiv on January 8. Suddenly, on the morning of January 5, the president was photographed in the capital of the Middle Eastern state of Oman, at the premises of the five-star Al Bustan Palace Ritz-Carlton Hotel. It turned out later, it was a private visit, allegedly funded by Zelensky’s wife. Though initially, the President’s Office claimed that the head of state flew to Oman to discuss trade and economic cooperation between the two countries, strengthen diplomatic relations, and attract investments.

According to journalists from Radio Free Europe, on January 7, a business jet with the registration T7-GEM flew to Oman. This aircraft belonged to Viktor Medvedchuk: Putin’s unofficial representative in Ukraine. A few hours later, a Bombardier business jet with the registration 9H-VJN flew into the capital’s airport of Oman, Muscat, from Moscow. An important detail: this aircraft had no orders for several days and had been in Stockholm since January 4. On January 7, the plane flew to Moscow, picked someone up, and flew out to Oman 2 hours later.

On the morning of January 8, in Tehran, Iranian air defenses mistakenly shot down a passenger plane of the Ukraine International Airlines. The crew and all passengers, mostly Iranian citizens flying through Kyiv to Toronto, died. It would seem that after such a catastrophe, the president should urgently return to Kyiv. But Zelensky does not rush back to Ukraine. He spends the entire day in Oman and returns to Kyiv on the night of January 9, 19 hours after the aviation disaster with the Ukrainian plane.

What follows is most intriguing. Evidently, on January 8, negotiations between Zelensky and the mysterious delegation from Moscow took place, after which the business jet from Kyiv, belonging to Medvedchuk, picks up unknown passengers and flies to Moscow. The aircraft with the registration 9H-VJN, which came from Moscow, takes Zelensky and Yermak to Kyiv.

Journalists from the Ukrainian edition of Radio Free Europe claim that Nikolai Patrushev flew in to negotiate with Zelensky and Yermak. However, they provided no evidence for this. It seems that indeed, unofficial negotiations between Russia and Ukraine took place in Oman. Apparently, they ended without results, as subsequent events indicated a lack of breakthrough in relations between the two countries.

>>> 41. The Theory of Yermak’s Betrayal

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On January 18, 2022, about a month before the invasion, an anonymous Telegram channel “Pechersky Hill,” close to the former Speaker of Parliament Dmytro Razumkov, shared insider information. Allegedly, Yermak convinced Zelensky and his entire team that there would be no war. Therefore, Ukraine was not prepared for the invasion. Here is the text of that Telegram post:

“By the way, do you know what the Office of the President of Ukraine thinks about the possibility of a full-scale Russian invasion? The answer is − they don’t think about it at all. They are firmly convinced that there will be no invasion.

This explains why officials from the OP and Zelensky himself have not yet rushed to evacuate their families from the country and why the OP reacts with indifferent nonchalance to news like the Armed Forces of Ukraine being supplied with fuel for only 30%. Internal problems of the President’s Office are now of more concern than external threats.

The source of such exemplary optimism was the head of the President’s Office, Andriy Yermak. He convinced his entire team that he had long settled everything with the Russians, that Ukraine is not threatened by anything, and all movements of Russian troops are exclusively a nerve game with Europe. It’s to make gas prices jump on European exchanges due to the threat of war and to make uncooperative Europe agree to the launch of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Which, of course, will not be launched, because Yermak has already negotiated there too.

Yermak’s optimism managed to infect his surroundings to such an extent that messages are consistently sent to the “Servant of the People” faction in the Verkhovna Rada and to party centers in local areas: “Don’t panic. Everything is under control. There is no reason to worry”.

We have no idea how to comment on all this. The question arises, what does Zelensky do if it turns out that the head of his office… was mistaken? To put it mildly…”

Naturally, Yermak’s actions can be attributed to incompetence, considering that this trait is typical for people from Zelensky’s team. Especially since Yermak himself said that he “did not believe until the last” in the possibility of Russian invasion.

However, one should not forget that Zelensky received accurate information about the planned attack at least two days before the start of the war. Not to mention the American intelligence data starting from October-November.

Are two days a lot or a little? It is enough to blow up bridges on the border with Crimea and relocate some troops to the border with Belarus. Nevertheless, the President’s Office, represented by Yermak and Zelensky, even in those last days, prohibited any actions that could significantly increase the country’s defense capability. In August 2022, advisor to the head of the President’s Office Mykhailo Podoliak explained this by saying they “were psychologically not ready to blow up bridges”.

“That morning of February 24, we were psychologically not ready to blow up bridges. The first few hours we thought: we invested in comfort for people, how now to destroy all this? We thought that on the other side there were also people who would treat homes, bridges, and other infrastructure carefully,” Podoliak said.

Notice: Podoliak deliberately manipulates the date. It’s not just about the morning of February 24. Both Yermak and Zelensky already knew on February 22 that the war would start in two days. What role did Andriy Yermak play in Ukraine not being prepared for the invasion? Without any doubt, his role was key, as the head of the President’s Office had a significant influence on the incompetent Zelensky.

So who is Andriy Yermak, and why do many in Ukraine accuse him of treason, not just ordinary mistakes?

Andriy Yermak was born in 1971 in Kyiv. His mother is Russian from Saint Petersburg. His father worked at the Soviet embassy in Afghanistan in the 80s. Because of this, some Ukrainian journalists hinted at his father’s connection with the KGB. But Andriy Yermak categorically denies this. According to him, his father was a technical specialist in Afghanistan and had no relation to the Soviet special service.

In 1995, after graduating from the law faculty of the Institute of International Relations of Kyiv University, Andriy Yermak began working as a lawyer. Two years later, he founded his own law firm, which specialized in intellectual property protection. According to Yermak, his clients included representatives of Disney, Pixar, and Universal.

It should be noted that protecting copyright is not the most profitable business in Ukraine. Andriy Yermak apparently made his first big money by lobbying the interests of small business owners in Kyiv. Until 2006, about 3,500 small trade objects operated in the capital. Opening a trade kiosk of 4-6 square meters cost no more than $10,000 at that time. Each kiosk provided at least $500 of net profit every month.

After Leonid Chernovetsky was elected mayor of Kyiv, his team significantly expanded the issuance of permits for opening trade kiosks. Over five years, their number grew threefold: to 12,000. Most of those who received such permission did not even engage in business themselves: they leased kiosks to other entrepreneurs.

In 2010, power in the Kyiv mayor’s office changed. Instead of Chernovetsky, who fled abroad, Oleksandr Popov from Yanukovych’s team became the acting city head. In 2011, the new mayor decided to change the rules for kiosks. Now their owners were required to pay for the use of the capital’s land.

Entrepreneurs did not like the change in rules. They began to hold protest actions and united into a public organization called the “Association of Small Business Owners and Small Architectural Forms”. It was headed by lawyer Andriy Yermak.

The new organization began to protect the interests of the capital’s entrepreneurs. For example, it challenged the Kyiv City Council’s decision to ban the sale of alcohol and cigarettes in kiosks. For legal support, each kiosk owner paid Yermak monthly contributions.

In 2013, the future head of the President’s Office worked for some time as the manager of the elite clothing store “Sanahunt”. Yermak insists he only provided business consultations to the store owner and was not on the payroll of this company.

From there, Andriy Yermak’s career sharply took off. He became a film producer, participating in the creation of three quite successful films: “Squat 32”, “The Fight Rules”, and “The Line”. Since 2016, Yermak’s production company Garnet International Media Group received more than 53 million hryvnias (approximately $2 million) from the state for the production and promotion of films.

Yermak met Zelensky in 2010 when the comedian unexpectedly became the general producer of the “Inter” TV channel. It is known that for many years they regularly communicated and maintained friendly relations. There is even a photo taken in 2016 at a restaurant in the French city of Cannes, where Yermak dines at a table with Volodymyr and Olena Zelensky.

Before his appointment as head of the president’s office, Andriy Yermak was practically unknown to the general public: there were more colorful characters around Zelensky then. Journalists then liked to discuss Andriy Bohdan — the former lawyer of Kolomosky, who became the head of the President’s Office in June 2019.

Unlike Zelensky, who only jokes well according to a pre-written script, Bohdan was a real fountain of humor. He hardly resembled a lawyer and even less an influential politician. Bohdan had such a characteristic appearance for a comedic artist that even against the background of Zelensky, he gave the impression of someone who accidentally got into politics.

Zelensky and Bohdan worked together for only half a year. By the fall of 2019, the press received information that a large part of Bohdan’s duties was performed by his deputy Andriy Yermak. It is not known for certain what caused Zelensky to become uncomfortable working with the lawyer of his favorite oligarch, but in February 2020, Bohdan was forced to submit his resignation. Yermak became the head of the President’s Office.

>>> 40. The Secret Meeting in Oman

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If the accusations against Volodymyr Zelensky were limited to corruption, it wouldn’t be so bad. Ukrainians had somehow gotten used to it. Then the name of the comedian from Kryvyi Rih would just stand next to Viktor Yanukovych. In terms of the scale of corruption, they were about on the same level. It’s just that under Zelensky, it wasn’t so noticeable because during wartime, more than half of all Ukraine’s state budget expenses were covered by the USA and other Western countries.

Many are beginning to forget that Yanukovych, after his flight, left Ukraine’s treasury empty. As of February 27, 2014, there were only 108,000 hryvnias or $11,300 left in the single treasury account. Almost everything had been plundered.

Even in December 2013, three months before his flight, Prime Minister Azarov begged Putin for a $15 billion loan because, at that moment, there was nothing to cover the state budget expenses. True, Putin prudently decided to give the money in tranches, so the Ukrainian government managed to receive only $3 billion.

Along with Yanukovych (though by different routes), fled to Russia: Ukraine’s Prime Minister Mykola Azarov, the head of the National Bank Serhiy Arbuzov, and almost all ministers. Viktor Yanukovych’s presidency ended in a complete disaster, both economically and politically.

Undoubtedly, something similar could await Zelensky. Even before the war, it was clear that this team was competent only in one thing: transferring state finances to dubious private companies. But everything changed at the end of February 2022. The war pushed corruption into the background. After the shock caused by the events in Bucha and Mariupol, a logical question arose: why did all this happen? Why wasn’t the Ukrainian army prepared for a full-scale invasion by Russia? After all, American intelligence reports that Putin was preparing for war appeared several months before the invasion.

The answer to this question is very simple. To strengthen the country’s defense capability, it was necessary to cut capital construction programs and transfer these funds to the army. Zelensky, having already tasted big money, categorically refused to do this. War did not fit into his logic, as undoubtedly, not only Ukraine but also Russia would suffer. Therefore, he thought that Putin would not dare to launch a full-scale invasion, and the situation would somehow calm down.

Famous Ukrainian volunteer Taras Chmut, always cautiously assessing Zelensky, in October 2023 stated that one of the main reasons for the poor preparation for the war was the lack of military personnel.

“We physically lacked people… Increasing the army to 300-350 thousand would have meant increasing the budget, but there was a position from the president that he had a different vision, so it turned out as it did,” Chmut said.

Chmut’s words are confirmed by an interview Zelensky gave on February 18, 2022, to the news agency RBC-Ukraine. The president stated that Ukraine could not afford to increase the army because then it would have to give up infrastructure projects.

“We can increase the army two or three times, but then, for example, we can’t build roads. For us, this is a problem,” Zelensky said.

Alright. Until December 2021, Putin’s rhetoric could be dismissed as intimidation. But in January, intelligence data clearly indicated that the Russian army was ready for invasion. Even assuming that Putin was bluffing and would back down at the last moment, the President of Ukraine still should have strengthened the state’s defense capability.

What was Zelensky doing in January-February 2022? After celebrating the New Year at the state residence Huta in the Carpathians, the president extended his holidays at the private ski resort Bukovel. There, on January 5, in a café, Zelensky and Yermak were photographed at a table with a bottle of alcohol.

As usual, in Bukovel, the president stayed in the same hotel as Ihor Kolomoisky, with their rooms even located on the same floor. Zelensky’s team once again called it a coincidence.

After the photo in the café with a bottle of vodka, the president spent several more days skiing, happily posing with tourists. Only on January 8 did he return to Kyiv.

On January 19, 2022, Zelensky made his most scandalous statement about “barbecues,” which would later be frequently recalled. He assured Ukrainians that there would be no war, life would continue as usual. “In May, as always − sun, weekends, barbecues… in summer − vacation”. The president advised citizens not to stock up on food and matches, explaining news of Russia’s preparation for war by claiming that Ukraine’s enemies wanted Ukrainians to have a constant sense of anxiety.

That same day, January 19, one of Zelensky’s closest associates, head of the parliamentary faction “Servant of the People” David Arakhamia in an interview with the magazine “Focus” stated that “Western media are spreading fakes,” and overall the situation is no worse than it was in the spring of 2021, when Russia also supposedly threatened war.

“Remember the escalation last spring? The situation as of today is no worse than that, roughly in the same range. Why are Western media escalating? Hard to say,” Arakhamia stated.

On January 23, the US State Department announced that some American diplomatic workers would be evacuated from Kyiv and urged US citizens to leave Ukraine as soon as possible.

On January 25, in his next video address, Volodymyr Zelensky reassured fellow citizens that the “situation is under control” and called on them “not to believe fakes.” That same day, he held a meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, where he publicly disagreed with the US forecasts and hinted that Ukrainian intelligence knows the situation better.

“I think we have generally the same agenda, but we still want to discuss some things in detail because you are far abroad, and we are here, and I think we know some things a bit deeper about our state,” Zelensky stated.

On January 31, Minister of Defense Oleksiy Reznikov assured that there is no reason for panic because the situation is identical to last year’s maneuvers of Russian troops at the borders of Ukraine.

“In April 2021, the combat component that Russia had amounted to 126,000 people. The number then and now is proportional. Disproportionate reaction… Then, the bold behavior of the Kremlin led to them receiving a call from the new President of the United States, Mr. Biden, and then a meeting in Geneva… Russia understood that this tactic works. And in the fall, it resorted to it again,” Reznikov said.

On February 11, the German news magazine Der Spiegel, citing sources in the German federal government, named the probable date of Russia’s attack on Ukraine — February 16. This information was provided to German officials by the CIA.

Commenting on this forecast, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov assured that the American intelligence data was incorrect: “As of today, we do not see that a large-scale offensive by the Russian Federation can start on the 16th or 17th.”

February 15. Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba stated that everything is under control: “The security situation remains tense but is fully under control. Ukraine is ready for any developments.”

Several months after the war began, when Ukrainian society began to ask more frequently who was to blame for the Russians being able to capture vast territories in a matter of days, Zelensky finally announced the official version. According to him, he deliberately did not inform about the threat of invasion for two reasons: to avoid provoking massive panic and to avoid damaging the Ukrainian economy.

“…If we had reported it – as some people, whom I will not name, wanted – then I would have lost $7 billion a month, starting from last October, and at the moment when the Russians actually attacked, they would have captured us in three days,” Zelensky said in an interview with The Washington Post in August 2022.

At first glance, the explanation of the President of Ukraine has a certain logic. He feared that millions of Ukrainian citizens, learning about the inevitability of war, would mass flee abroad, and enterprises would lose workers. Of course, one can question the moral aspect of this decision. On one scale, the loss of $7 billion for the economy, on the other — tens of thousands of people who died in Mariupol and other front-line cities due to the lack of evacuation. But Zelensky has yet to explain why, over four months, starting in October, as the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, he failed to organize proper defense of the directions warned about by American intelligence.

Why weren’t museum valuables transported to safe regions? Why weren’t children from orphanages evacuated? Zelensky had enough time for all this. Instead of protecting his citizens, the President of Ukraine was vacationing at a ski resort and posing with tourists.

>>> 39. Person Number 2

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Could Ukraine have avoided war in those days? Recalling the sequence of events, at a press conference on February 22, Vladimir Putin offered Ukraine several conditions for normalizing relations. However, upon closer inspection, these conditions, like the previous ultimatum addressed to the USA and NATO, were purely formal in nature. Given the peculiarity of Ukrainian legislation, they were impossible to fulfill.

For instance, Putin demanded that the Ukrainian authorities recognize the results of the referendum in Crimea and renounce joining NATO.

“The first thing that needs to be done is to recognize the will of the people living in Sevastopol and Crimea. How is this will any worse than what happened in Kosovo? It is not. The decision was made by parliament, here – by a popular referendum,” Putin stated.

The demands of the Russian president were not only impossible to fulfill but also deceptive. Firstly, the Crimean referendum was held illegally. At the time of its conduct on March 17, 2014, Ukrainian laws were in effect in Crimea, which clearly prohibited local authorities from initiating and conducting referendums on matters of territorial integrity. Secondly, the referendum was conducted under the full control of the occupying troops of a neighboring country. And most importantly, the Constitution of Ukraine prohibits any changes to legislation that violate the territorial integrity of the state.

Even if we assume that Zelensky decided to agree to Putin’s conditions, he would not have been able to implement these conditions into Ukrainian legislation. The only legal way to fulfill these conditions would have been to adopt a new Constitution of Ukraine, without Crimea as part of the country. But this procedure had to go through two sessions of parliament, even with a constitutional majority (⅔ of the deputy composition of the Verkhovna Rada). Considering the character and traditions of Ukrainian society, this could only lead to a new, now third, revolution.

Of course, Putin understood that Zelensky, even if he wished to, could not fulfill his conditions. The basic plan of the Russian president was a complete change of Ukrainian power and the return of President Yanukovych. It is quite possible that Putin already envisioned in his dreams how he would receive a parade on Khreshchatyk after a short victorious war. He was not going to wait half a year for Zelensky to change the Constitution. And will he change it at all? Putin expected that the Ukrainian government would collapse like a house of cards within a few days following the Afghan scenario.

As for Kyiv’s response to Putin’s ultimatum, the next day, on February 23, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stated that Ukraine considers it impossible to fulfill the conditions for normalizing relations according to Vladimir Putin’s scenario:

“Fulfilling the conditions stated by the President of Russia to Ukraine contradicts the choice of Ukrainian society. For an independent, sovereign Ukraine and for me, as the Prime Minister of our country, this is impossible,” Shmyhal wrote on his Telegram channel.

>>> 38. Why Wasn’t Zelensky Preparing for War? The Answer is Simple

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According to American intelligence, the invasion of Ukraine was planned for January 2022. However, on January 2, massive unrest broke out in neighboring Kazakhstan due to a sharp increase in liquefied gas prices. Within a few days, protests spread to the country’s largest cities. There was a risk of overthrowing the government, which at the time showed complete loyalty to the Kremlin. Putin could not allow this to happen.

On January 5, the President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, requested military assistance from the member states of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which includes Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia. The Kremlin and its allies agreed to send troops, but events unfolded so rapidly that Russia and other CSTO countries’ military aid was purely symbolic. By the time Russian troops arrived in Kazakhstan, street unrest had been localized. Officially, 338 people died as a result of the protests in various cities of Kazakhstan, and more than 3,000 were injured.

It is likely that due to the events in Kazakhstan, Putin lost several weeks and was forced to postpone the invasion date of Ukraine.

By January 2022, the Americans were 100% certain that war would start. On January 23, the US State Department allowed some embassy staff in Kyiv to leave Ukraine voluntarily “due to the threat of military action by Russia.” Australia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Canada also announced the partial evacuation of their embassy personnel.

Unlike their Western colleagues, representatives of the Ukrainian authorities somehow demonstrated restrained optimism. On January 25, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov stated on the ICTV channel that he does not see an immediate threat of a full-scale Russian invasion into Ukraine.

On January 27, a phone call took place between Biden and Zelensky. According to CNN, the talks went “not very well”: both presidents diverged in their assessment of the current situation. Biden convinced Zelensky that a Russian invasion was “practically obvious” and urged him to prepare for the “inevitable” assault and “looting” of Kyiv. Zelensky disagreed with such an assessment and asked not to spread panic, as it harms the Ukrainian economy.

On February 4, 2022, the Winter Olympics started in Beijing. Most likely, Putin again decided to postpone the invasion date of Ukraine so as not to upset his dear friend, Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Undoubtedly, the war would immediately overshadow the Olympics in all world news.

On February 10, US President Joe Biden in an interview with NBC News called on all remaining Americans in Ukraine to leave the country. The next day, February 11, during a video conference with allies from the European Union and NATO, Biden even named the invasion date — February 16.

On February 14, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced the temporary relocation of the US Embassy in Ukraine from Kyiv to Lviv. Later, The Wall Street Journal reported that the State Department ordered the destruction of all network equipment and computers at the embassy, as well as dismantling the internal telephone system.

And what was Vladimir Zelensky doing during these days? Instead of preparing for defense, evacuating museum valuables from border cities, and evacuating children, the President of Ukraine declared February 16 a new national holiday — Unity Day. Local officials were obliged to hold a solemn raising of the national flag to the sounds of the national anthem at 10 a.m. in their cities.

February 16 arrived. The war did not start. There were still four days left until the end of the Olympics, with the competition for medals in full swing. But each subsequent day indicated that the situation was becoming increasingly threatening. On February 17-18, several shellings by the Ukrainian army were staged in the occupied part of Donbas, supposedly confirming the fact of ceasefire violation. The video recording of “Ukrainian shellings” was purely formal. For example, one of the videos, supposedly shot on February 18 during shelling by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, was created on February 8 — ten days before that. The sound in the clip was partially copied from another video published on YouTube back in 2010.

On the same day, February 18, the occupation authorities of the DPR (Donetsk People’s Republic) accused Ukraine of blowing up a car allegedly belonging to the head of the Donetsk police, Denis Sinenkov. But journalists quickly proved the staging. Photos of the aftermath of the explosion showed a burned old model UAZ car with Sinenkov’s license plate attached. Although everyone in Donetsk knew that the local police chief drove a new UAZ Patriot around the city.

Finally, on February 21, Russian military propaganda reached its culmination (at the time). Television aired the aftermath of the breakthrough of Ukrainian sabotage groups into Russian territory. After that, due to the threat of an offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the occupied part of Donbas, the evacuation of the civilian population to Russia began.

On February 22, Vladimir Putin signed a decree recognizing the independence of the DPR and LPR. Almost immediately, the Russian Federation Council gave the president the right to use Russian troops abroad. That same day, videos appeared showing the official introduction of Russian troops into the territory of the DPR and LPR. Despite these Ukrainian territories being occupied by Russia for 8 years before this, the Kremlin did not acknowledge its involvement in the events in Donbas.

Captured documents and Russian military maps indicate that the invasion was prepared for February 22. However, for unknown reasons, likely related to formal issues in Moscow, the attack was postponed to February 24.

>>> 37. Putin Issues Another Ultimatum, Now to Ukraine

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