Among Ukrainian bloggers, a conspiratorial theory has long been circulating that Andriy Yermak is a Russian intelligence agent with the codename “Kozyr” (Trump Card). However, none of them have been able to present any evidence to support this theory. Nevertheless, observing Yermak’s political activities, it’s impossible not to notice his decidedly favorable attitude towards Russia, at least until the war.
For instance, in September 2019, Andriy Yermak, in a conversation with the U.S. Chargé d’Affaires in Ukraine William Taylor and former U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Volker, directly accused former President Poroshenko of the war in Donbas. He did so with such emotion that none of the participants doubted Yermak’s sincere belief in his accusations.
During the meeting with Yermak, Volker hinted at dropping the idea of prosecuting Poroshenko. In response, Yermak pulled out a mobile phone, showed a photo of his brother wounded in Donbas, and declared Poroshenko to be the culprit. As William Taylor recalls, he was convinced of Yermak’s deep-seated emotional resentment towards Poroshenko.
Blaming the former president for the war in Donbas is peculiar, given that Petro Poroshenko took office in June 2014, while active combat operations in the East began in April. Essentially, Andriy Yermak was echoing Russian propaganda, which also blamed not Putin but Ukrainian politicians for the conflict. And according to Taylor, Yermak genuinely believed in these accusations.
Interestingly, the heroic brother of the President’s Office head, Denis Yermak, was accused by journalists and opposition deputy Geo Leros in March 2020 of organizing a scheme for trading state positions. His conversations discussing the cost of various leadership positions with candidates were recorded on video. Ukrainian law enforcement showed no interest in these recordings, and Denis Yermak faced no consequences for his actions.
Another piece of the puzzle adding to Andriy Yermak’s portrait is the “Wagner case” or Wagnergate. Facts indicate that he was the one who disrupted this operation by insisting on its postponement for a week. As a result, the plan of Ukrainian special services was thwarted, and Russian mercenaries avoided arrest in Ukraine.
Briefly, the “Wagner case” involved the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (GUR) and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) planning to arrest 33 members of the Wagner group in the summer of 2020. This included those involved in the downing of a military IL-76 near Luhansk in June 2014 and potentially important witnesses in the MH17 flight downing case.
Russian mercenaries were to be arrested in Kyiv with the help of a forced, supposedly emergency landing of a Turkish Airlines plane traveling from Minsk to Istanbul. Months before, Ukrainian intelligence agents had placed fake job ads in Russia for security work in Venezuela, promising salaries of several thousand dollars a month, with a preference for candidates with combat experience. This way, among the hundreds of Russian applicants, GUR and SBU agents managed to identify those of most interest: members of the Wagner group.
Zelensky was informed about the upcoming special operation on June 15, 2020. He approved the operation and asked for a plan to be prepared, which was reviewed and approved by the Minister of Defense on July 1, 2020. Subsequently, two senior officers responsible for the operation, Vasyl Burba, head of GUR, and Ruslan Baranetskyi, deputy chairman of the SBU, regularly reported to Zelensky. However, on July 23, 2020, during the final plan approval at the President’s Office, Andriy Yermak insisted on postponing the operation date from July 25 by another week.
It’s worth noting that on July 25, the bus with Wagner mercenaries crossed the border between Russia and Belarus. According to the original plan, they were to fly to Istanbul and then to Caracas that same day. Instead, the mercenaries were accommodated in one of the resorts near Minsk. The new flight date was set for July 30.
On the morning of the penultimate day of the Wagner mercenaries’ stay in the resort, Belarusian special forces stormed in. The mercenaries were detained allegedly for planning riots in Minsk but were later returned to Russia.
The reason for the operation’s failure turned out to be a phone call from Zelensky to Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko. Zelensky himself only admitted this after many months of denial. In October 2021, during a briefing in Truskavets, the Ukrainian president revealed he had informed Lukashenko about the Wagner mercenaries near Minsk, to which Lukashenko responded, “We will do everything possible.”
Initially, the President’s Office claimed that there was no operation to detain the Wagner mercenaries at all. Then a new version emerged: the operation was prepared but by foreign intelligence services that wanted to involve Ukraine in unnecessary troubles. Only after the testimony of the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, Vasyl Burba, who publicly disclosed some details of the failed plan to detain Russian mercenaries, was the president forced to acknowledge the truth. Burba, who called for a parliamentary investigative commission on the fact of treason, was immediately dismissed from his position. His service apartment and state security were also taken away, although, after public outcry, the security detail was returned.
Why did Zelensky sabotage the special operation of Ukrainian intelligence services? According to him, he did not want to worsen relations with Russia ahead of negotiations with Putin. Of course, as the Supreme Commander-in-Chief and elected head of state, the president has the right to make such political decisions. But one can be 100% certain that without Yermak’s advice, this would not have happened.
Andriy Yermak does not need to be an FSB agent to push Zelensky towards actions beneficial to Russia. Currently, we do not know whether he truly works for the Kremlin or simply holds pro-Russian views, which he has carefully hidden under the guise of patriotism since the start of the full-scale war.