According to American intelligence, the invasion of Ukraine was planned for January 2022. However, on January 2, massive unrest broke out in neighboring Kazakhstan due to a sharp increase in liquefied gas prices. Within a few days, protests spread to the country’s largest cities. There was a risk of overthrowing the government, which at the time showed complete loyalty to the Kremlin. Putin could not allow this to happen.
On January 5, the President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, requested military assistance from the member states of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which includes Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia. The Kremlin and its allies agreed to send troops, but events unfolded so rapidly that Russia and other CSTO countries’ military aid was purely symbolic. By the time Russian troops arrived in Kazakhstan, street unrest had been localized. Officially, 338 people died as a result of the protests in various cities of Kazakhstan, and more than 3,000 were injured.
It is likely that due to the events in Kazakhstan, Putin lost several weeks and was forced to postpone the invasion date of Ukraine.
By January 2022, the Americans were 100% certain that war would start. On January 23, the US State Department allowed some embassy staff in Kyiv to leave Ukraine voluntarily “due to the threat of military action by Russia.” Australia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Canada also announced the partial evacuation of their embassy personnel.
Unlike their Western colleagues, representatives of the Ukrainian authorities somehow demonstrated restrained optimism. On January 25, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov stated on the ICTV channel that he does not see an immediate threat of a full-scale Russian invasion into Ukraine.
On January 27, a phone call took place between Biden and Zelensky. According to CNN, the talks went “not very well”: both presidents diverged in their assessment of the current situation. Biden convinced Zelensky that a Russian invasion was “practically obvious” and urged him to prepare for the “inevitable” assault and “looting” of Kyiv. Zelensky disagreed with such an assessment and asked not to spread panic, as it harms the Ukrainian economy.
On February 4, 2022, the Winter Olympics started in Beijing. Most likely, Putin again decided to postpone the invasion date of Ukraine so as not to upset his dear friend, Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Undoubtedly, the war would immediately overshadow the Olympics in all world news.
On February 10, US President Joe Biden in an interview with NBC News called on all remaining Americans in Ukraine to leave the country. The next day, February 11, during a video conference with allies from the European Union and NATO, Biden even named the invasion date — February 16.
On February 14, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced the temporary relocation of the US Embassy in Ukraine from Kyiv to Lviv. Later, The Wall Street Journal reported that the State Department ordered the destruction of all network equipment and computers at the embassy, as well as dismantling the internal telephone system.
And what was Vladimir Zelensky doing during these days? Instead of preparing for defense, evacuating museum valuables from border cities, and evacuating children, the President of Ukraine declared February 16 a new national holiday — Unity Day. Local officials were obliged to hold a solemn raising of the national flag to the sounds of the national anthem at 10 a.m. in their cities.
February 16 arrived. The war did not start. There were still four days left until the end of the Olympics, with the competition for medals in full swing. But each subsequent day indicated that the situation was becoming increasingly threatening. On February 17-18, several shellings by the Ukrainian army were staged in the occupied part of Donbas, supposedly confirming the fact of ceasefire violation. The video recording of “Ukrainian shellings” was purely formal. For example, one of the videos, supposedly shot on February 18 during shelling by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, was created on February 8 — ten days before that. The sound in the clip was partially copied from another video published on YouTube back in 2010.
On the same day, February 18, the occupation authorities of the DPR (Donetsk People’s Republic) accused Ukraine of blowing up a car allegedly belonging to the head of the Donetsk police, Denis Sinenkov. But journalists quickly proved the staging. Photos of the aftermath of the explosion showed a burned old model UAZ car with Sinenkov’s license plate attached. Although everyone in Donetsk knew that the local police chief drove a new UAZ Patriot around the city.
Finally, on February 21, Russian military propaganda reached its culmination (at the time). Television aired the aftermath of the breakthrough of Ukrainian sabotage groups into Russian territory. After that, due to the threat of an offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the occupied part of Donbas, the evacuation of the civilian population to Russia began.
On February 22, Vladimir Putin signed a decree recognizing the independence of the DPR and LPR. Almost immediately, the Russian Federation Council gave the president the right to use Russian troops abroad. That same day, videos appeared showing the official introduction of Russian troops into the territory of the DPR and LPR. Despite these Ukrainian territories being occupied by Russia for 8 years before this, the Kremlin did not acknowledge its involvement in the events in Donbas.
Captured documents and Russian military maps indicate that the invasion was prepared for February 22. However, for unknown reasons, likely related to formal issues in Moscow, the attack was postponed to February 24.