In March 2021, American intelligence noticed a massive deployment of Russian troops near the borders of Ukraine, numbering up to 120,000 personnel. According to John Kirby, the spokesperson for the United States Department of Defense, this was the largest concentration of Russian military forces near Ukraine since 2014. The unexpected activity of the Russians forced the United States European Command (EUCOM) to change the assessment level of the situation between Ukraine and Russia from a “potential crisis” to a “potential crisis that could occur in the near future” at the end of March 2021.
On April 13, 2021, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu for the first time acknowledged the troop movements to the borders of Ukraine. He stated that for the purpose of checking combat readiness following the winter training period, two combined arms armies and three airborne forces units were additionally deployed to the western borders of the Russian Federation.
According to an analysis by the Ukrainian National Institute for Strategic Studies, published in September 2021, the spring activity of the Russian Armed Forces near the borders of Ukraine was explained by their practicing the possibility of a sudden strike to block Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea. Or, at least, they were preparing to implement a plan to encircle Ukrainian troops in eastern Ukraine. For this, the Russian army had to strike from two sides: from the northern border and from Crimea.
Experts believe that Putin decided to conduct large-scale maneuvers not only to train his army but also to send a signal to the new President Biden about his desire to negotiate. He achieved this: at the end of May 2021, the presidents of Russia and the United States agreed to meet in Geneva. The talks took place on June 16, and sources in the White House called them “constructive.”
According to The Washington Post, the first alarm bell rang a month after the meeting in Geneva: in July 2021, when Putin’s article “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians” was published on the official Kremlin website. Mostly, the content of this essay consisted of a brief interpretation of history and assessment of the relations between Russia and Ukraine. However, the text then included a message that Soviet leaders had transferred territories to Ukraine that historically did not belong to it, and therefore Russia was essentially robbed. At the end of the article, Putin began to make veiled threats: “We will never allow our historical territories to be used against Russia. And to those who would attempt such a thing, I want to say that by doing so, they will destroy their country.”
American analysts did not like the tone of the author of this article, prompting intelligence to step up its activities in Russia. The result was the conclusion that Russia was indeed preparing for a full-scale war with Ukraine. President Biden was informed of Putin’s plans in October 2021.
Zelensky received the first information that Putin was preparing to attack Ukraine a few weeks after Biden was informed. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken informed the Ukrainian president of the Kremlin’s intentions during a personal meeting at the climate change conference in Glasgow. This happened in early November 2021.
Less than two weeks after the meeting in Glasgow, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and Head of the President’s Office Andriy Yermak visited Washington. Recalling the visit, Kuleba mentioned that a high-ranking American official greeted them with a cup of coffee and a smile at the U.S. State Department.
“Guys, dig trenches,” the official began. “When we smiled in response, the official said: ‘I’m serious. Start digging trenches… You will be attacked. A major attack, and you must prepare for it.”
According to Kuleba, he and Yermak asked for details, but “there were none.” Later, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister even claimed that the Americans did not provide them with specific intelligence data “up to the last 4-5 days before the invasion began.”
Kuleba’s statement should be taken with great skepticism since as early as December 2021, three months before the invasion, Putin’s plan was published on the website of the German tabloid newspaper Bild and was actively discussed not only by experts but also by journalists and bloggers.
Comparing the map of the likely advance of Russian troops published on December 4 in Bild and the real directions of the invasion into Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022, they are almost identical. Attempts to encircle Kyiv from two sides, including from the direction of Belarus, the attack from Crimea, the strike towards Kharkiv, the attack in the occupied part of the Luhansk region, and the strike on Volnovakha were confirmed. The only difference between the two plans was the absence of a naval landing in Odesa. The Russians did not dare to undertake such a complex and risky operation.
Thus, three months before the war began, Putin’s plan was already posted on the internet. This means that the Office of Zelensky was familiar with this plan, at least in November, four months before the invasion. There was enough time to prepare, but nothing was done.
And what about Putin and the Americans? It would be a mistake to think that President Biden’s administration simply watched as Russia prepared to attack Ukraine. At the end of October 2021, the White House requested a meeting between CIA Director William Burns and Putin.
On November 2, Burns flew to Moscow and was taken to the Kremlin office of Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s foreign policy advisor and former ambassador to the U.S. The Russian president refused a personal meeting and decided to speak with the CIA director by phone.
Initially, the Kremlin master complained about NATO expansion, the security threat to Russia, and Ukraine’s illegitimate leadership.
“He spoke very disparagingly about President Zelensky as a political leader,” Burns recalls.
After listening to Putin’s brief lecture, Burns conveyed the White House’s message: “The United States knows what you have planned, and if you invade Ukraine, you will pay a huge price.” He also left a letter from Biden, in which he confirmed the extremely negative consequences for Russia of any attack on Ukraine.
In the conversation with Burns, Putin did not deny the accuracy of intelligence data indicating the preparation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. According to the CIA director, Putin had not yet made an irreversible decision to start the war at that time, but his views on Ukraine had hardened, and his appetite for risk had increased.
How did the Americans learn about Putin’s decision to start the war? At the end of 2023, interesting information circulated among Russian military bloggers. It turned out that the commander of the Russian Airborne Forces, General Mikhail Teplinsky, from October 2021 to January 2022, actively sold shares of Russian companies he owned. This suggests that in October or even at the end of September 2021, Putin informed senior Russian generals about the inevitability of war with Ukraine. Obviously, at this stage, when at least 10-20 people knew about the impending war, there was a leak, which reached American intelligence.